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Regional insight – Middle East

The Middle East remains the largest net energy exporter, increasing both its oil and gas exports over the Outlook period

Highlights

55% increase

Growth in Middle East energy consumption

8%

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

36% increase

Growth in Middle East energy production


The Middle East remains the largest oil producing region and the second largest gas producer, representing 36% of global liquids production and 20% of global gas production.
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Energy demand rises at 1.9% p.a., oil’s share drops from 47% to 34% and gas’s share remains constant at 51%.
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The share of non-fossil fuels in the Middle East’s primary energy demand mix increases from 1% in 2017 to 13% in 2040, half of the world’s average (27%).

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Projections

  • Energy consumption increases at 1.9% p.a. The largest growth is in the power sector (+2.3% p.a.) and industry (+2.0% p.a.), which together account for 69% of incremental energy demand growth. Non-combusted is the fastest growing sector (+2.8% p.a.), but only represents 16% of incremental demand.
  • Gas and renewables together contribute 78% of incremental energy demand. Natural gas demand increases by 55%, driven by industry (40% of the increase), power (31%), buildings (17%) and non-combusted (11%). The increase of gas in transport is negligible.
  • The use of renewables rises by a factor 100, albeit from a very low base, led by strong growth of solar and wind (over 20% p.a. each). Nuclear grows by 15% p.a. and contributes 3% of the energy mix by 2040.
  • Oil demand growth (+13%) is limited as its use is reduced in the power sector. Oil’s share in energy drops from 47% to 34%. The use of coal increases slightly to 2% of total energy demand by 2040.??
  • Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 11% over 2017-40, much less than the world’s decline (-37%).
  • Energy consumption per capita reaches OECD levels by 2040 and is twice the world’s average.
  • Domestic energy production increases by 36%, driven by growth in natural gas (+60%), and oil (+17%).
  • The Middle East remains the largest producer of oil and the second largest of natural gas. Oil production increases by 5 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach 37 Mb/d by 2040, which includes 5 Mb/d of NGLs and 2 Mb/d of condensates.
  • Natural gas output rises by 396 Bcm to 1056 Bcm by 2040. LNG exports almost double to 227 Bcm, making the region the largest LNG exporter; gas pipeline exports triple. The region also imports 36 Bcm of LNG by 2040.
  • Net CO2 emissions from energy use rise by 29%.

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