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Country insight – Brazil

Brazilian energy needs grow significantly and its energy mix continues to rely heavily on hydro and renewables over the forecast period

Highlights

2.2% p.a. increase

Average growth in Brazilian energy consumption

22%

Share of biofuels in total liquids consumed in 2040

2 Mb/d increase

Growth in oil production


Brazilian energy consumption grows by 2.2% p.a., much faster than the global growth (1.2% p.a.).
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Renewables gain significant share in the energy mix to account for 23% by 2040 (up from 14% in 2017).
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Brazil accounts for 23% of the increase in global oil production between 2017 and 2040.

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Projections

  • Energy consumption in Brazil increases by 2.2% p.a., much faster than the global growth of 1.2% p.a. Its share on global energy consumption increases to 3% by 2040.
  • Strong energy consumption growth implies that Brazilian energy per capita converges to the global average over the forecast period.
  • The consumption of every fuel increases. However, most the growth is in renewables including biofuels (+71 Mtoe, + 175%), oil (46 Mtoe, + 39%) and natural gas (+38 Mtoe, + 114%).
  • The energy mix shifts toward non-fossil fuels as hydro, renewables and nuclear account for almost 50% of the mix by 2040, up from 43% in 2017.
  • The share of renewables in power generation doubles to one-third in 2040. The use of gas also gains weight in the power mix while limited growth in hydro capacity means that it loses share.
  • Energy demand grows in every final sector. However, buildings grow the fastest (+91%), followed by transport (62%) and non-combusted (52%) and industry (51%).
  • Liquids demand grows by over 1 Mb/d but growth decelerates. In fact, liquids demand plateaus slightly above 4 Mb/d in the late 2030s.
  • Energy production increases by 2.6% p.a. and Brazil becomes a net energy exporter.
  • Brazil remains the world’s second largest user of biofuels after the US; in 2040 22% of total liquids consumed are biofuels.
  • Oil production increases significantly (70%) reaching almost 5 Mb/d by 2040, which represents 5% of global production.
  • Gas production more than doubles to reach 63 Bcm by 2040. However, Brazil remains a net gas importer over the forecast period.
  • Net CO2 emissions grow by 31%, slightly faster than the non-OECD average.
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